A 24-team College Football Playoff hasn’t been officially announced, but it’s coming.
It’s inevitable and Ole Miss head coach Pete Golding said the quiet part out loud about why the expanded format is going to happen.
“I think once we’ve gone to the nine-game SEC model, it was going to be extremely hard if you did not expand it with the caliber of teams,” Golding said at his Monday press conference.
This is the first year the SEC has played a nine-game conference schedule, matching what the Big Ten has. The realities of adding an extra game in the toughest conference is already evident.
There are no undefeated SEC teams left and the comparison of who beat who is growing wilder and wilder. Florida epitomizes that with a dominant win against Ole Miss followed by big losses to Missouri and South Carolina and then hands Texas its second loss in as many weeks.
Throw in Ole Miss dominating Missouri last weekend and the craziness continues. Adding a ninth game was never going to temper the wildness of SEC football. It just added another opportunity for something unexpected to happen.
The good news is that next year, SEC teams will have a little more leeway. But in the current 12-team format, the craziness might lead to a disappointed SEC headquarters the day the CFP field is announced.
Right now there are roughly 4-6 SEC teams with legitimate arguments to be included in the playoff. ESPN’s latest projections have three (Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia) teams included in the field. But teams like Alabama and Texas do have some arguments working in their favor.
The Longhorns have a win against then-No. 1 Ohio State and Alabama is, well, Alabama.
And there’s still enough time left in the season for a team like Kentucky, LSU, Florida, or Missouri to work its way back in the conversation.
In a 24-team playoff, many of those SEC contenders would still have plenty of room for error. In the current 12-team format, however, there isn’t nearly as much forgiveness.
Which makes Ole Miss’ position particularly interesting.
Because despite all the chaos around the conference, the Rebels have a remarkably clear path to the playoff.
The Rebels have been ranked inside the top 10 all season long, reaching as high as No. 4 after defeating LSU. If the playoff field was set today, they’d be in.
It, of course, won’t be set until December 6 so there’s time for that change. However, looking at the rest of the Rebels’ schedule leads to an interesting thought.
If Ole Miss goes 2-1 in its next three games, it’ll be a near-lock for a playoff spot. Maybe even a spot in what’ll likely be the final SEC championship game.
To do that, the Rebels would need two wins against either No. 19 Texas, Auburn (who just beat then-No. 1 Georgia) and Georgia. It could afford one loss amongst those three, win the rest of its games against Oklahoma, Wofford and Mississippi State.
It’s not hard to see Ole Miss winning those last three games. Oklahoma is electing to not have an offense this season, Wofford is an FCS team and Mississippi State’s chances rely entirely on the health of quarterback Kamario Taylor.
That would put it at 10-2 for the season and quality wins against Louisville, LSU, Missouri and either Texas or Georgia (or both).
That’s a playoff resume right there.
Now the question we’re left with is can Ole Miss do what it needs to do.
We’ll start to learn that answer in four days.
