History Says Edge Goes to LSU, Odds Favor Rebels

Do you believe in numbers, trends, historical data? If so, Ole Miss fans shouldn’t feel too confident about the Rebels heading south to Baton Rouge this weekend.

History says it’ll be tough to come back with a victory. But Lane Kiffin’s team doesn’t focus on numbers. They still have a bigger goal in mind.

It’ll be the 113th meeting between Ole Miss and LSU, the most the Rebels have played against any school, other than that team about 100 miles south of Oxford,

When Ole Miss wins — sorry, Mississippi State fans, I mean plays in — the Egg Bowl to end the regular season, the Rebels plan for that game to clinch their spot in the 12-team playoff that will determine the 2024 national champion.

Ole Miss Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin directs his team against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the second quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. | Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

But first, Kiffin is screaming right now, there is the monumental task of winning at LSU. Kickoff in Death Valley, perhaps the most difficult setting for a night game in the whole world of college football, is at 6:30 p.m. Watch it on ABC.

LSU is 4-1 overall, 1-0 in the SEC but is hampered by injuries on defense. Ole Miss is 5-1 and 1-1 after bouncing back from a 20-17 home loss to Kentucky by stomping South Carolina 27-3 in Columbia.

The Rebels are confident their high-powered offense can move the ball and bring home a win but there is that little word — history — that is not in their favor. Every season is different, of course, and players don’t’ care much what came before them but here’s a number that nobody in Oxford wants to see: no wins at LSU since 2007.

The Tigers lead 65-42-4 in the series that dates back to 1894. Here’s the number that matters most: 43-24-1, the home-field edge LSU enjoys against Ole Miss.

It’s the first meeting with both teams ranked since 2003, with the Rebels at No. 9 in the AP poll and LSU No. 13. In the 11 games they’ve played with both teams ranked, LSU leads 7-4.

So why should we expect the Rebs to win? Well, they’re favored by 3.5 points on the road, which says a lot.

Here’s a few other numbers that suggest why Ole Miss could escape Death Valley with a victory. Quarterback Jaxson Dart ranks top-five in six passing categories and is PFF’s current top-rated QB with a 91.8 grade.

The prolific passer is also one of just four active FBS quarterbacks with 9,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards.

Ole Miss Rebels wide receiver Tre Harris (9) breaks a tackle attempt by Kentucky Wildcats linebacker D’Eryk Jackson (54) during the first half at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Dart’s favorite target, scintillating senior Tre Harris, leads the nation in receiving yards (885) and yards per game (147.5). But the 6-3, 210-pounder who’ll be somebody’s favorite target in the NFL next year might have to sit this one out.

Harris left last week’s game at South Carolina with an ankle sprain and was listed as “questionable” on the SEC injury report.

LSU sure hopes he can’t play. Harris burned the Tigers in last year’s shootout at The Vaught with eight catches for 153 yards and the game-winning 13-yard touchdown grab with just 39 seconds on the clock. The 55-49 win is part of Ole Miss’ 34-11 record since 2021, the third most victories among SEC teams.

I don’t expect the teams to combine for 1,343 yards as they did a year ago, but it says here that the Rebels will have a jubilant trip home from Baton Rouge late Saturday night.