Missed Opportunities – Analysis of Ole Miss vs. Arkansas

Ole Miss starting quarterback Chad Kelly (Photo by Bill Barksdale)

For the third straight year, the Ole Miss Rebels (3-3) fell to the Arkansas Razorbacks (5-2). By a score of 34-30, the Razorbacks defeated the Rebels with a very simple game plan: expose the weakness of the Ole Miss defensive backfield and use their size advantage to move the ball effectively.

With a 30-27 lead late in the game and five minutes remaining, the Rebels had a chance to stop Arkansas on a 4th down and 4, but QB Austin Allen was able to throw to a wide open Austin Cantrell for a 1st down with no Rebel DB in the vicinity. Able to keep the drive alive once more, the Razorbacks converted a 3rd and 9 on their way to scoring a go-ahead touchdown with just over two minutes remaining.

Chad Kelly and the offensive took the field with a chance to win the game, but after taking a crucial sack followed by a questionable false start penalty, the Rebels were faced with a 4th and 16. With pressure in his face, Kelly rolled out and decided to run. With daylight ahead, he appeared to have a chance at getting the first down. His effort was met with a huge hit that jarred the ball lose, giving Arkansas the ball back and the victory.

Rebel fans everywhere remember the 30-0 loss to the Razorbacks in 2014 and 4th and 25 in 2015, but this year’s loss has a different type of sting to it. The Rebels made mistakes in critical moments that doomed their chances of coming out on top. With a chance to build a lead with seven minutes to go in the 4th quarter, a near pick-6 on a poor throw by Kelly coupled with two huge drops by Stringfellow and Van Jefferson resulted in a quick 3-and-out while taking only 27 seconds off the clock. The Razorbacks dominated overall time of possession, holding the ball for just over 40 minutes.

From the opening drive, Arkansas moved the ball with short passes, and the ability to rip off length runs. The Rebel defensive didn’t show any adjustments as the game progressed, leaving the defense exposed for Austin Allen and the Razorback offense to exploit.

The Rebels once feared “Landshark” defensive now ranks last in the SEC in total defense, and 104th out of 128 teams in the NCAA. While the rebels lost key members of last year’s defense, top recruits were brought in to replace them eliminating that drop-off. However, this has not been the case. While acknowledging the youth of the defensive secondary, the Rebels weren’t able to matchup with Arkansas’ receivers, and the defensive line looked overpowered against the Razorback offensive line. The inability to play man coverage was evident in the waning minutes of the 4th quarter.

The Rebels issues aren’t solely on defense. The Rebels were only able to gain 150 yards on the ground, 89 of those yards coming from Kelly. Running backs Akeem Judd and Eugene Brazely only combined for 61 yards on Saturday. Noticeably missing from the rushing attack was backup QB Jason Pellerin, who was prominently featured in the win against Memphis. The Rebels weren’t able to create any holes inside or challenge the Razorbacks on the outside, leading to a heavy reliance on the passing game causing the offense to become one-dimensional and predictable at times.

Chad Kelly didn’t have a great night, but when that happens other players need to step up, play well and pick up the quarterback. With dropped passes, an ineffective run game and a defense that didn’t adjust, the Rebels didn’t have enough pieces in the right places to come out on top.

The road ahead doesn’t get any easier for the Rebels who now sit at 3-3. They’ll travel to Baton Rouge this Saturday to take on Ed Orgeron’s LSU Tigers. The Rebels will look to rebound and finish the season strong, but with tough SEC matchups against Auburn, Texas A&M and Mississippi State, it will certainly be an uphill battle.

Steven Gagliano is a writer for HottyToddy.com. He can be reached steven.gagliano@hottytoddy.com.